Technology forecasting

Page 27 Share Cite Suggested Citation: These failed forecasts resulted in enormous business losses. A significant market opportunity would be lost if the company faces global opposition to its genetically modified rice.

Another reason for this is that of consistency in an overall picture or scenario.

Technological forecasting

Adapted from Lee and Bradshaw The technique lends itself to forecasting in that it provides a structured process for projecting the future attributes of a present-day technology by assuming that the technology will change in accordance with the Laws of Technological Evolution, which may be summarized as Technology forecasting Number of automobiles per Technology forecasting.

Many forecasts would terminate in the problem formulation stage since it is generally not the purpose of a forecast to produce inventions. These can be opportunities or threats and might have a potential impact either on a single enterprise or on several or many enterprises collectively.

These networks can reinforce bias patterns found in the data and users, causing the network to produce unwarranted correlations and Technology forecasting identifications.

A common reason for a company to change its Chief Executive Officer is to inject a new vision into the organisation. Deploying too many resources in futures studies can be counter-productive.

Some researchers believe that potentially valuable information is suppressed for the sake of achieving a representative group opinion Stewart, An example of a rule could be to select the analogy that the experts rated as the most similar to the target and adopt the outcome implied by that analogy as the forecast Green and Armstrong, Transition to a higher level system.

The quality of decision-making in strategic planning can be improved by information on these factors and by the knowledge and experience learned from obtaining such information. This is to exclude from the domain of technological forecasting those commodities, services or techniques intended for luxury or amusement.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Patent analysis can be regarded as a specific foresight technique if the implications of the analysis are followed through. Some of them were used in the past for forecasting technology, with varying success.

Technology forecasting

It is unlikely that any single method on its own will meet the needs of a foresight programme. The development rate of desktop computer subsystems is a good example of nonuniform evolution.

Chaos theory characterizes deterministic randomness, which indeed exists in the initial stages of technology phase transition.

The steam engine, for instance, gave way to electric motors to power factories, and the steamship eliminated commercial sailing. The Delphi method has three attributes—anonymity, controlled feedback, and statistical group response 5 —that are designed to minimize any detrimental effects of group interaction Dalkey, Other Modern Forecasting Techniques New capabilities and challenges lead to the creation of new forecasting techniques.

As a formal methodology, scenarios were first used at the RAND Corporation in the early days of the cold war. Typical events which bring about deviations from a trend are wars and depressions. Obsolescence Forecasting Occasionally, major technologies are made obsolete by fundamental advances in new technology.

Alternate Reality Games With the advent of the ability to create simulated worlds in a highly distributed network, multiplayer system alternate realities have begun to emerge online. If these drivers change substantially it may be more difficult to generate meaningful forecasts from historical data by extrapolation see Figure Image courtesy of Ken Eklund, game designer, creative director, and producer.

They are considered improved variants of decision trees or game trees.

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Identification of consistent deviations[ edit ] Another frequently used combination of forecasts is that of the trend curve and one or more analogies.

This trend is called a growth curve or S-curve Kuznets, OverviewTechnology forecasting includes a suite of offerings. Technology Evaluations and Coordination involves working collaboratively with Penn IT partners to identify, evaluate, and coordinate new IT services (or new ways of delivering existing services).

Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques Important aspects. I think we have a cultural affinity for technology that reflects optimism, but.

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It is this relative continuity in a technology’s technical and economic characteristics and potential applications which makes technological forecasting possible. including technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. There has been little systematic attention to the conceptual development of the field as a whole.

Technological forecasting. Technological Forecasting (TF) is concerned with the investigation of new trends, radically new technologies, and new forces which could arise from the interplay of factors such as new public. Read chapter 2 Existing Technology Forecasting Methodologies: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption.

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Technology forecasting
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